The Conference, jointly organized by the Singapore Actuarial Society (SAS) and International Actuarial Association Health Section (IAAHS), will address topics such as Managing Healthcare Cost, Making Healthcare Affordable and Preparing Healthcare for the future.
The conference’s main objective is to educate actuaries and professionals working in the field of healthcare financing, healthcare sectors, officers of government and multi-lateral agencies which promulgate policies or conduct research on healthcare and healthcare financing – both locally and globally. This conference is to provide participants with solutions and ideas from subject matter experts in both the public and private health sectors.
The conference program includes a keynote speech, panel discussion and talks, designed to stimulate thinking and discussion on the current trends and topics within the health profession.
Dr. Ian Duncan, PhD, FSA, FIA, FCIA, FCA, CSPA, MAAA
Dr. Duncan is an Adjunct Professor of Actuarial Statistics at the University of California Santa Barbara and president of Santa Barbara Actuaries Inc. He holds a graduate degree in Economics from Balliol College, Oxford a Ph.D. in Actuarial Statistics from Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh. He is active in public policy and healthcare reform and served on the board of directors of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Health Insurance Connector Authority from 2007-2014. He was also a member of the board of the Society of Actuaries (2012-5). He is the author of numerous peer-reviewed papers, and several books and book chapters. His latest book, a second edition of “Healthcare Risk Adjustment and Predictive Modelling” was published in May 2018.
Topic: Predictive Modelling in Healthcare; Promise and Peril
Prior to the inception of COVID-19, healthcare budgets in most countries appeared to be out of control, with the U.S. healthcare spending heading to 20% of GDP, and other countries not far behind in terms of rapidity of increases. COVID-19 has caused healthcare authorities, payers and providers to temporarily focus on fighting the pandemic, but once COVID-19 is under control budget pressures will return, greater than ever. Recently, predictive analytics, big data and artificial intelligence have been proposed as solutions that will change healthcare for the better. Certainly, analytics, data science and artificial intelligence are playing a significant role in process automation and improving diagnostic accuracy. Models enable practitioners to identify high risk populations and conditions earlier and to intervene more effectively with patients. But is the optimism for big data and AI in healthcare justified or is it simply hype? Why, if models are so much better, are we not seeing a bending of the cost-curve in healthcare? What will it take for predictive analytics and AI to make a significant impact on the cost and value of healthcare?
We propose three factors that are required to work together to effect transformation: Payment Reform; Predictive Analytics and Behavioral Economics. In the future, more outcomes risk will be transferred to providers and consumers of healthcare services. As risk professionals, actuaries are positioned to be a significant contributor to this transformation.