Modelling COVID-19 – What have we learnt?

Modelling COVID-19 – What have we learnt?
Modelling COVID-19 – What have we learnt?
November 26, 2020
08:00 - 09:30 EST (click here for your local time)

If you have an IAA Account, you must be signed in to register
click here to sign in 
To register as a guest: click here

If it were not for the associated human tragedy, the challenges of Covid-19 would be a very exciting time to be actuary. Crucial to the responses of policy-makers, governments, corporates and others has been the challenges associated with modelling the virus in terms of cumulative and daily numbers of cases, hospitalisations, deaths and recoveries. Case fatality rates and infection rates have been followed with great interest in the public domain and the actuarial profession has been able to demonstrate huge added value to all in our contribution.

Coming together to make a difference.

On the weekend of 7-8 March 2020 this group of concerned actuaries, epidemiologists, & longevity specialists came together in response to Lombardy shutting down. Instinctively, they knew that we face a global crisis of epic proportions, and we have to do what we can quickly, meaningfully and thoughtfully. The COVID-19 ARG was born with a core group of 10 actuaries which has since grown to 15.

To date the ARG has published 67 bulletins including a regular Friday Report, has been quoted in a number of reputable journals and newspapers, created its own website ( and has over 5000 followers on each of Linked In and Twitter.

The IAA, in association with NoCA is proud to host the C19-ARG in a series of webinars relating to Covid and in this webinar we will tackle the challenges of Modeling an unprecedented pandemic from its early emergence in Wuhan at the end of 2019 to today where, in many countries, cases are still rising. The focus of the webinar will be to extract lessons from our modelling to date to inform better responses to second and subsequent waves of outbreaks.


Stuart McDonald is Head of Demographic Assumptions and Methodology for Lloyds Banking Group, where his multi-disciplinary team are responsible for assumptions about policyholder health and behaviour. These are used for pricing, risk management and valuation of around £170 billion of pension and annuity policies.+

Stuart joined Lloyds in 2014 and built the longevity team which supported Scottish Widows’ launch into the Bulk Annuity market. Previously he held a variety of commercial and technical roles including leading the longevity reinsurance pricing team at Munich Re through their market entry and first deals and building a longevity risk model for Canada Life.

Stuart is a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries and a Chartered Enterprise Risk Actuary. He plays an active role within the actuarial profession, currently serving as Chief Risk Officer on the Executive Committee of the Continuous Mortality Investigation.

Matthew Edwards is an actuary working at Willis Towers Watson, where he leads the life insurance practice’s demographic risk work, focusing on mortality, longevity and associated analytics.

He has a particular interest in the interface between actuarial work and medical science.

Before his (circa) twenty years at Willis Towers Watson (via legacy Watsons and Towers Watson), he worked for Aviva, including several years in Italy, and for the Actuarial Education Company tutoring life and mortality courses. He is Chair of the CMI, Editor of the IFoA’s Longevity Bulletin and chaired the profession’s Antibiotic Resistance Working Party.

Matthew Fletcher has over 20 years’ consultancy experience, including over 10 years as a specialist in mortality and longevity. He works in Aon’s Demographic Horizons team, advising insurance companies and pension funds on setting best estimates and evaluating risk for longevity and other demographic assumptions, both in the UK and overseas.

Matt chairs the CMI Self-Administered Pension Schemes (SAPS) Committee, which produces mortality tables that are used extensively in the pensions and insurance industries.

Louis Rossouw is Head of Research & Analytics | Life/Health (Gen Re) and is based in Gen Re's Cape Town office and him and his team support life insurance clients in the UK, South Africa, Canada, Australia and New Zealand with research and analytics.

He has previously worked on individual pricing and product development, group pricing and reserving. Louis joined Gen Re in 2001. He has also worked for two years in Gen Re’s Singapore branch as Regional Chief Actuary. He currently serves on the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s Continuous Statistical Investigation Committee.

Roelof Coertze is an independent consultant actuary with over 20 years of life insurance experience. His focus is on climate change, the financial risk thereof for insurers and its identification, monitoring and management. He has helped insurers develop and implement appropriate risk management frameworks, apply successfully for internal models, and provided senior management and board training on a variety of topics. Roelof is based in London and has and is contributing to papers on climate change by the IFOA and the CRO forum.

Roelof is co-founder 
and ex-president of the Network of Consulting Actuaries. NoCA is a growing organisation of actuaries which is committed to developing and sharing knowledge. To this, NOCA provides monthly CPD sessions. More detail can be found at

11/26/2020 8:00 AM - 9:30 AM