Tuesday, October 12, 2021
Hosted by IAALS
The impact of Covid-19 on higher-age mortality
This presentation will look at Covid-19 mortality experience (mainly in the 50+ age group) and what impact this has had over the last two years and might have on future mortality.
We will first look at how Covid-19 mortality experience compares with all-cause mortality using English data, once we have allowed for varying infection rates across the population. A key conclusion is that there is a strong proportionality relationship between Covid-19 death rates and all-cause mortality by age and by socio-economic group (e.g. by deprivation). What we then observe as higher death rates in specific groups can then mainly be attributable to variations in infection rates (e.g. regional or socio-economic variation).
Second, we will look at the future mortality prospects for those who survive the pandemic. A simple model will be presented that allows us to explore this question. In the absence of secondary effects of the pandemic, survivors are likely to be healthier than the pre-pandemic population, with a corresponding small increase in life expectancies. However, further adjustments will need to be made when we begin to quantify the secondary impacts of Covid including long-term impairments ("long Covid") and the impact of delayed treatments for other illnesses such as cancers.
Andrew is a professor in actuarial mathematics and statistics at Heriot-Watt University. His research interests have focused in recent years on modelling and measurement of mortality and longevity risk for life insurers and pension plans. He is an active member of the AFIR-ERM, ASTIN and Life sections of the International Actuarial Association and acted as editor-in-chief of ASTIN Bulletin from 2007-2017.